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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

30% of Millennials are married with children:



Apparently over 1/3 of Millennials are married (43% according to this graphic, and no, you aren't married if you don't at least live with your spouse, whatever the certificate says.  From the same article, https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/05/27/as-millennials-near-40-theyre-approaching-family-life-differently-than-previous-generations/#:~:text=While%20Millennial%20women%20are%20less,an%20average%20of%202.02%20children. technically, it says "A majority of Millennials are not currently married, marking a significant change from past generations. Only 44% of Millennials were married in 2019, compared with 53% of Gen Xers, 61% of Boomers and 81% of Silents at a comparable age."), but marriage is meaningless without children.  For all I know the rest are all gay marriages.  What I'm trying to measure here is the ability of Millennials to viably replace themselves before dying of old age.  Married without children is still total failure.  Marriage with 1 or 2 children is still failure.

There's still time, so let's say just to be generous all those who are married without children will eventually have children.  In that case 43% of Millennials will reproduce.  (I don't count single parents with children in this total because it's pointless to reproduce if you can't pass down your values and interests to your child, and by definition one parent isn't around to pass those important things down, so they haven't really reproduced in this case.)

In the past well over 80% of people reproduced.  And not just 1 or 2 kids like Millennials.  In the 1800's it was 7 kids per woman.

So even if my numbers are slightly off (1/3 and 30% do line up pretty darn close though), the overall drift of my point remains the same.  43% is not a viable civilizational model.  Heck, 60% isn't (if you wanted to throw in the single parents with children.  In the article it states that 55% of Millennial women have given birth.  (In contrast,  "In 2018, 40% of Millennial men ages 22 to 37 said they had fathered a child." ) Also, "In 2018, Millennial women who had given birth had an average of 2.02 children."  So some simple math says the average is (45% * 0) + (55% * 2.02)/100 = 1.11 Millennial fertility rate.  It gets worse.  Whites have a lower fertility rate than non-whites (from the article, a vague, "Among Millennials, Hispanic and black women are more likely than white and Asian women to have given birth."), and many Millennial white women give birth to mixed race children.  8% of Millennial whites married non-whites, according to the article.  So the white fertility rate is even lower.  At least below 1.0.  And for men, who started at only 40% having fathered a child at all, never mind whether they got to live with the child and influence it, that 1.0 number has to be even lower).  It should not be a coin toss whether you survive to the next generation or not.

In all of history it was never this grim.  And the trend line is worse every year.  What on Earth will it look like for Zoomers?

Even the Black Death only claimed 1/3 of European lives.  Now it's okay to lose over 50% of the population every generation?  This is madness.  (No, this is Sparta -- I mean, modern day America. . .)

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