World Cup Commentary #4:

At last we know the remaining teams entering the round of 16.  These teams were sort of a return to normalcy.  Brazil and Portugal for group G, and Spain and Chile for Group H.  Spain's defeat of Chile finally broke the unbeaten record for South American teams in this World Cup.  But the defeat was inconsequential because Chile knew it could afford it.  For the first time ever, five South American teams are in the round of 16.  All 5 that were in the round of 32 advanced.  This has to make Brazil or Argentina the favorites to win it all.  Now that it's been established that South American soccer is more competitive than European soccer at this time, you have to think the best of South America will be better than the best of Europe too.  Europe has some even worse trouble ahead of it -- Portugal plays Spain, the Netherlands play Slovakia and England plays Germany in the next round, thus Europe will end up self-destructing before they get a chance at their South American foes.

I wouldn't underestimate Holland or Portugal though.  Portugal has yet to be scored on in three matches, and had as many opportunities in the 0-0 draw with Brazil to score as Brazil had on Portugal.  When Portugal and Brazil are both serious, they'll both step up their game, to be sure.  But the hidden reservoirs of Portugal have not yet been tested -- a 7-0 destruction of North Korea, three games without being scored on, and tying Brazil is not easy.  Spain is a good team that only lost to Switzerland due to bad luck.  But they didn't look immortal when playing Chile.  My bet is that Portugal will beat Spain in their coming match.  Brazil should have an easy time beating Chile, they beat them all the time at home when qualifying for the World Cup after all.

Let's compare Fifa rankings to tournament results on the last two groups:

Group G:
Brazil, Fifa ranking #1
Portugal, Fifa ranking #3
Ivory Coast, Fifa ranking #27
North Korea, Fifa ranking #105

Group G winners' average: 2
Group G losers' average: 66

No upsets here.

Group H:
Spain, Fifa ranking #2
Chile, Fifa ranking #18
Switzerland, Fifa ranking #24
Honduras, Fifa ranking #38

Group G winners' average: 10
Group G losers' average:  31

No upsets here either.  Overall, the Fifa rankings are more accurate than not.

My picks for the next 8 games:
Uruguay vs. South Korea -- Uruguay
Argentina vs. Mexico -- Argentina
USA vs. Ghana -- USA
Germany vs. England -- Germany
Netherlands vs. Slovakia -- Netherlands
Paraguay vs. Japan -- Paraguay
Brazil vs. Chile -- Brazil
Spain vs. Portugal -- Portugal.

Not surprisingly, I tend to favor the chances of the teams that won their groups over the chances of the teams that were runners-up.  My only maverick call is Portugal, so I hope that team especially proves me right.  I also think the Germany-England match is going to be extremely tough.  That will be fun to watch.  Good for North America and East Asia to each get two teams into the next round.  This is looking more and more like a World Cup as the old legacy European teams fade.