World Cup Commentary #3:

Today's results are in for world cup groups E and F.  There were some exciting games.  Group E was completely dominated by the stellar dutch who won all three games in their group.  They smoothly advance as group leaders.  Japan, meanwhile, played a stellar game to dash Denmark's hopes into the ground.  Japan outplayed Denmark in all parts of the field, and only gave up a goal in their 3-1 victory due to a poor call by the referee for an undeserved penalty kick.  No one who actually watched the Japanese play, in their victory over Cameroon, narrow 1-0 loss to the Netherlands, and thrashing of Denmark, could say this was an upset or an undeserved success.  Even so, let's compare the results to what was 'supposed' to happen according to Fifa rankings.

Group E: 
Netherlands, Fifa rank 4
Japan, Fifa rank 45
Denmark, Fifa rank 36
Cameroon, Fifa rank 19

For a team that lost all three games, Cameroon sure was ranked highly.  You get the sense of an omnipresent affirmative action program trying to buoy black success that the results on the field just don't reflect.  Africa has added two more losses to its win-loss-tie rate since my last damning assessment of their already pathetic play.  Meanwhile East Asia seems a bit undervalued considering both South Korea and Japan not only advanced, but clearly outplayed their competition and earned their spots in the round of 16.

Group E winners average rank:  26.5
Group E losers average rank:  27.5

How far can Holland go?  They always succeed at first but lose in the end.  I doubt it will be any different this World Cup.  Their competition hasn't been strong enough to really test them, but they've still let their opponents hang around and never put in a blistering win like, say, Portugal's 7-0 victory over North Korea.

Group E's winners will be facing the winners of Group F.  Here we see a remarkable occurrence, Italy failing to make it out of the group stage.  It was a close run thing, all Italy needed was a tie and they were only trailing by a goal most of the game.  But somehow or other, their chances slipped through their hands and Slovakia ended up the 3-2 winner.  The Italians were lucky to get a penalty kick against New Zealand to tie that game up in the previous match, so they really didn't deserve to move forward anyway.  And as tenacious as New Zealand was to get three ties in the World Cup, I don't think they played well enough, or aggressively enough, to deserve a spot in lieu of Paraguay or Slovakia.  For new teams to succeed in the world cup, old legacy teams have to make room by failing.  A tournament isn't very exciting if you know the semifinals will always include Italy, Brazil, Germany, and France/Holland/Argentina.  I'm quite pleased with all these legacy teams being knocked out immediately by total newcomers, it adds new life to the game.

Group F:
Paraguay, Fifa rank 31
Slovakia, Fifa rank 34
New Zealand, Fifa rank 78
Italy, Fifa rank 5

Average Group F winners' rank:  32.5
Average Group F losers' rank:  41.5

So you see?  The Fifa rankings were overall correct both times today.  It's still rather funny to see New Zealand achieve a higher score than 5th ranked Italy, but I can only guess there's a bias towards old legacy tournament greats that is seriously overestimating genuinely mediocre teams.  By the way, with Parguay's 0-0 tie of New Zealand, South America still has yet to suffer a defeat in this tournament.  An incredible record they continue to add to daily.

Paraguay will have their hands full versus Japan, which has shown good goalkeeping, great ball control, and good teamwork.  Still, Japanese seem a little too short and slow to beat a good team like Paraguay.  I would say Paraguay should win this game.  I'm happy enough seeing my favorite country on Earth have their day in the Rising Sun with their win over Denmark.  The Netherlands should have no trouble at all putting away Slovakia.