China and Taiwan fought a civil war to decide who would rule China starting even before World War II and ending in 1949. Taiwan lost. Normally speaking, this would be the end of 'The Republic of China,' and China would have unified under communist rule. This is what happened to the Confederacy in our civil war. No one cries for the loss of the South's sovereignty. However, the fact that the Republic of China adherents fled to a remote, hard to access island made it much more difficult to crush them once and for all, and the USA intervened and made a defensive alliance with these loser holdouts. Since the USA had nukes and communist China didn't, when the USA says they'll go to war with you if you do something there's nothing you can do.
Imagine if Britain, France, Prussia and Russia had all ordered the North to stay out of Virginia on pain of annihilation. In that case the South would be independent today too, but that doesn't mean they won their independence fair and square. They never earned their independence, it was given to them by a stab in the back. Most new nations, when they're founded, do so on a legacy of a successful war of independence that gives them the right to stand among the other victors of the world who all carved out their own spaces. Taiwan lost a war and somehow was given control of an island right off the shore of China by foreign colonial powers meddling in internal Chinese affairs. Everyone agreed that Taiwan was part of China, no different than Shanghai or Beijing. For America to simply carve up that united China because it preferred one government over another smacks of incredible hubris. China rightly feels that they'll never be taken seriously or respected as a country so long as foreign powers are able to appoint the rulers of China's own provinces in their own territory based on which rulers' policies they prefer. This would be like if China got to appoint the governor of California. Would the USA stand for that? And the only reason Taiwan exists is because of the might of America illegitimately claiming it somehow has the right to intervene in the domestic, internal affairs of China's politics.
Taiwan is not a real country, but a colony of America, hostile to China, right off the shore of China, which serves America's interests by weakening and threatening China, bristling with American weapons. What does this sound like? Oh I know, it sounds exactly like Ukraine. A great power in the world is bordered by a poodle which for some bizarre reason hates the great power and continuously provokes and threatens it. It gets away with this because it is backed by the USA and bristling with USA funds and arms provided to them for free by USA taxpayer expense. In a realistic world, absent USA meddling, Taiwan would have friendly relations with China so as not to upset them. It would not pursue an independent foreign policy from China's mainland because it would acknowledge that its strategic location right offshore mainland China makes it an unacceptable threat to China should it ally with China's enemies. Taiwan having an alliance with NATO, which is basically what it's doing right now, which continuously tries to subvert and demean China, is an unacceptable security risk for China. You cannot allow the entire coastline of China to be ringed with NATO-armed 'Taiwanese' forts full of missiles, perhaps nuclear missiles, that can annihilate the entire Chinese coast in minutes, which is where the majority of Chinese live.
Then there's this, in a sensible world Taiwan would not be independent of China. They are the same ethnicity, they speak the same language, they share the same historical national roots, they both claim to be China, and they're right next to each other. Bumper to bumper. There isn't even any deep historical grievance or abuse Taiwan can claim China ever did to them. The people of Taiwan were never abused by China -- they fled after losing a war and were never conquered and thus never oppressed to begin with. Mao slaughtered tens of millions of his own people but Taiwan escaped all that scot free. So why exactly should Taiwan feel it has to become independent to protect itself from the ravages of the evil Chinese government? If anyone felt that way, it should be every other province of China, all of whom have suffered more at China's hands than Taiwan.
The basis for self-determination in the world is generally three-fold, none of which Taiwan qualifies for -- A) The ruling power is completely different from the ruled, like say Belgium ruling Congo. Thousands of miles apart, different technological and economic levels, different languages, different races, different everything. In this case the argument for self-determination is strong. Two such completely alienated parties cannot possibly craft government policy that is mutually and equitably beneficial to both parties. A package tailored to their unique needs based on their differing circumstances is obviously preferable.
B) The minority in question seeking independence has been horribly abused by the majority for no good reason and as a matter of survival must win its independence or perish. This is true, for instance, in the case of East Timor or South Sudan, both of whom suffered genocides before the UN granted them new national status. But Taiwan can't point to a single thing China ever did to them. They have no reason to believe they'll be persecuted in the future and there is no precedent of them being persecuted in the past. The people of Hong Kong today live in a virtual utopia with one of the highest standards of living on Earth. That's about as close a parallel as one can get to what Taiwan should expect under Chinese rule. Honestly I consider China to be among the best governed nations on Earth, so being ruled by China would be a huge upgrade for the denizens of Taiwan. China is anti-gay which means your country might actually have a chance to form couples, have children, and survive into the future under them. Something Taiwan cannot hope to provide.
C) The people seeking independence won it fair and square in battle and whether you think it's justified or not the facts on the ground speak for themselves. This is how Texas won its independence from Mexico, how America won its independence from Britain, etc. If you win a war of independence then it doesn't matter how petty or silly the basis for your claim to independence was, you are now most definitely deserving of independence. No one can say you nay. Honestly America rebelling over something as stupid as a stamp tax is one of the dumbest sources of self-determination the world has ever seen. But because we were a great people we decided to strike out on our own and seize our great destiny for ourselves. We couldn't do that as a minor province of Britain. We saw our inner strength and made the world at large realize it from there. Taiwan, however, lost its war with China. It ran away with its tail behind its legs into a remote island stronghold. And then sheltered under the might of America's armed forces from there on. They're a group of loser cowards who won't even fight their own war for their own independence. They expect us to win their war of independence for them.
So what we come down to is Taiwan should be a free and separate nation simply because, on a whim, they wish to be. There is no historical, rational or might-makes-right reason they wish to be independent, but nevertheless they wish to be, so they should be free. Someone will say Taiwan is capitalist and thus needs to be independent of China. That's nonsense. China is capitalist. So is Hong Kong. Nothing would change if China ruled Taiwan's economy. Another will say that Taiwan is democratic and thus needs to be separate from dictatorial China. That's also nonsense, China has shown time and again that it's more sensitive to the desires of the people than the average democracy. It is more popular in polls than most democratic countries among its people, has delivered better services and cancelled unpopular laws like vaccine mandates when the people protested. There is nothing democracy could deliver Taiwan that China's enlightened dictatorship can't. China's government, specifically their infrastructure investments, worldwide trade network development, technological development, and their preservation of the nuclear family and personal virtue, is superior. Preserving a democracy simply because it's a democracy is mistaking the means for the end. What you want is a government with good results. China's results have been the best on Earth. Their meteoric rise to the world's foremost nation was all done under the stewardship of today's Communist Party. Who wouldn't want to be ruled by China? I wish America, instead of a democracy that elects the likes of doddering retards and corrupt rapists like Biden and Clinton, were ruled by China right now. Where have elections gotten us?
If people, in isolation, want to be free, for no good reason at all, and are a homogenous block of people in a contiguous territory, I would normally say God bless them. They harm no one else and if it makes them happy then whatever. If Taiwan were sitting in the middle of the Pacific Ocean I would have no objections. But they're actually one mile offshore China. And they're allied with China's greatest enemy, the USA, which over and over has made clear they wish to destroy China, overthrow its government, carve it into pieces and shatter its economy. There are Taiwanese islands, outside of the main island of Taiwan, that are directly adjacent the Chinese mainland. It's totally insane. And these islands are military outposts for -- you guessed it -- USA weaponry. Not just one island, an entire chain of Taiwanese islands that ring China's coast like a fence. For a superpower like China, to have their immediate coastline blockaded like this by their most determined and powerful foe, is unacceptable. It would be unacceptable for any country, much less one as big and powerful as China. No one should have to tolerate this sort of indignity. Taiwan's main island itself is already way too near China for comfort, but these extra islands add insult to injury and make Taiwanese self-determination preposterous.
Taiwan has no ethical, historical, cultural or militarily legitimate claim to independence. In a world of great power diplomacy, they sided with their immediate neighbors' greatest enemy instead of the natural act of being friendly to the people they are most similar to. As such, China can not afford to allow them to be free. If free, they will immediately plot against China and China's interests, ultimately involving themselves in a cabal to destroy China. It's not a paranoid delusion, it's the stated public policy of America, Taiwan's greatest ally, to overthrow China's government and split up its country into lots of little pieces. Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Mongolia, whatever. No one in their right mind would grant self-determination to a nation deadset on destroying them the moment they're unbound. If Taiwan had sought autonomy, while granting its military and foreign policy decisions to China's mainland, I think this would be a perfect compromise that could satisfy all parties. But Taiwan is not rational or interested in compromises. It thinks the armed might of the USA lets them get away with anything. Much like Ukraine said to Russia, their much more powerful neighbor, "I fear nothing and cede nothing." How did that work out for Ukraine?
I believe it won't be long now, within the next decade, China will risk nuclear war with America to seize Taiwan. It will win any conventional war with America because Taiwan is directly adjacent to China and we're on the other side of the world. We cannot project force that can match China's military that can fire away right from their mainland. Our ships will all be sunk and then there will be nothing left to fight with. Meanwhile all their planes can take off and land from China, fighting all they want. Their missiles and artillery are already within the range of Taiwan. There's nothing we can do in a contest like that. This is why it's incredibly stupid to try to make countries directly adjacent to superpowers that are hostile to said superpowers independent in the first place. Practically speaking it's impossible, so why attempt it theoretically? It only leads to pointless bloodshed and the same result as surrendering to begin with.
Honestly no one in America is willing to die in a nuclear blaze so that Taiwan can have elections and gay pride parades. We aren't that altruistic. Taiwan is on its own and it cannot defeat China so it should make an accommodation with China before the guns start blazing. The sooner the better. China has signaled their patience is wearing thin and I'd prefer Ukraine 2.0 not to happen. One Ukraine is enough.
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