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Thursday, December 30, 2010

2010: Best Year Ever? More Evidence:

Record shopper sales for the Christmas season means our GDP will be on par this year with the previous highest year in American history, before the recession. Maybe this recovery is somehow a 'mirage' with another collapse just ahead, maybe it's a 'jobless' recovery that isn't helping the bottom 80% of this country, but GDP numbers don't lie. Economically speaking, we've totally recovered and are as well off as America has ever been. Meanwhile, countries like China grew during the entire recession and are still growing now, meaning the world as a whole is much better off than it was in 2007.

The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya was incredible, the finest Haruhi yet. It was completely faithful to the novel, fast-paced, reflective and enchantingly beautiful. Its blu-ray release to audiences outside of Japan on December 18th caps off an amazing year of anime.

Technology Review has been summing up all the technological advances made this year with its own best of 2010 lists. Popular Science has done something similar. All of them are good reads. I was particularly amazed with today's technology review article:

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/26984/?p1=A1
Meanwhile, laboratories made prototypes of potentially ultra-efficient new kinds of solar panels. Nanostructures help solar panels absorb light, increasing their power output by 30 percent or more (TR10: Light-Trapping Photovoltaics and Solar Cells Use Nanoparticles to Capture More Sunlight). Researchers are finding ways around the inherent physical limitations of semiconductors, demonstrating in a prototype solar cell an effect that allows photons to generate multiple electrons. This approach could increase solar power output by 50 percent (Upping the Limit on Solar Cell Efficiency). A novel approach that uses both heat and light from the sun to make electricity could potentially double the output of solar panels (A New Way to Use the Sun's Energy).

Combine all of these advances together and we're looking at quadrupling the efficiency of solar power. This could easily outperform fossil fuels. Isn't 2010 the year we invented cheap, renewable, and plentiful power for the whole world? What am I not seeing here? We're looking at utopia because of this year's scientific advances. Don't forget we've invented driver-less cars that can race up Pike's Peak and navigate real life traffic without getting into a single accident this year too. That invention could be as game-changing as cheap solar power in the end.

Not satisfied?

Then consider the bonus eps of blu-ray Angel Beats, the Haruhi blu-ray box set, and the blu-ray Nanoha movie that came out this December.

Still not satisfied?

Then consider Clannad After Story's announcement that it will be out in blu-ray 4/20/2011.

Still not satisfied?

Then consider Vgchartz, the premier website for all things gaming, declaring this was the best year for video games of all time.

http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/features.php?feature=102

It's kind of scary how many great games were released this year. We thought 2009 was the best year ever, and 2008 before it, but 2010 may really top them both. It was an incredible year for all platforms, with exclusives and multiplatform titles of the highest quality which every home console, handheld, and PC gamer could possibly ask for. Blockbusters abound, new IPs flourish, and the gamers rejoice in the bounty of incredible games across the genres. However, while it was tough, we have narrowed down our final votes for our favorite games of this astounding year.

I'm not the only person speaking in superlatives about 2010.

Still not satisfied? Then how about this?

http://mashable.com/2010/12/27/kindle-3-best-selling-amazon/
The third-generation Kindle is the best-selling product in Amazon’s history, the company has announced.

We now have an effective, cheap, easy-on-the-eyes replacement for the entire publishing industry. The billions of dollars spent on printing books, shipping books, and stocking books can all be replaced by the kindle 3. All older books are free for download to the kindle 3, instead of costing hundreds of dollars to find some out of stock copy that still exists physically in the world. The new age of reading has begun. If you don't like the record sales of the kindle 3, then refer to the record sales of the 2010 ipad instead. One reaches the same conclusion either way.

Let's not forget that the burj khalifa is the tallest building ever made by an enormous margin and it was completed this year. Human accomplishment literally reached new heights this year. How often can one say that?

So we return to the question, is 2010 the best year ever? Only by every possible measure and according to every possible person in the know about their own field. Only according to all the statistics and all the 2010 wrap-up articles being posted all over the web. But hey, who am I to judge.

2 comments:

Rollory said...

"GDP numbers don't lie. Economically speaking, we've totally recovered and are as well off as America has ever been. Meanwhile, countries like China grew during the entire recession and are still growing now"

There so very much wrong with this passage - and, I guess, with the entire article premised on it, though I didn't read past that point.

1) GDP numbers reflect a nearly one-and-a-half trillion dollar deficit. The entirety of the recovery from the 2008 crash has been in government spending, not in private economic activity. GDP is what it is because the government is spending to cover up the gap. Government spending does not create economic activity, it just shifts it around, with wastage. This is not sustainable, and when it disappears, economic activity will fall back to the previous low point, and probably lower.

2) This is money being borrowed from the rest of the planet. Even if they wanted to keep giving us their cash, pretty soon (in a matter of a few years) they just won't have enough to cover the gap. Particularly as the interest costs keep rising - there are clear historical correlations regarding debt-to-GDP ratios and revolutions and destruction of political/economic systems, and the USA is way past the safe zone and showing no signs of turning around.

3) China has entire cities of empty buildings. It is not possible to just build monumental wastage like that and not have to pay for it somehow. Their ability to sell stuff is built on them poisoning their own water and land while selling us junk we don't really need. They can't poison indefinitely, and we aren't always going to be buying. Their demographics are all wrong too. China is a bubble, the biggest one yet seen. Their publicized economic numbers are essentially made up. No man knows the day or the hour the bubble will pop, but pop it will.

... ok, having gone back and scanned the rest of it - gaming? Blu-ray? (who the fuck needs it?) The _Kindle_? One really good solar flare and every single Kindle is a paperweight.

On the basis of THIS dogcrap, you talk about "best year ever"?

Diamed said...

The problem with your argument is that you have to dismiss all the visible evidence in order to prove 2010 was a bad year:

The debt ratio you speak of is not a problem, Japan has a 200% debt to GDP ratio but I've never noticed any revolutions or destruction of political/economic systems there.

China being in a bubble is not a problem, there's no actual evidence of that, it's just something people currently imagine must be true. The truth is China isn't in a bubble, it's underperforming its potential. China will continue to grow economically until its income matches its IQ, the correlation is proven in IQ and Wealth of Nations. China recently scored 1st in the PISA tests, showing they had the best educated kids in the world. China won't be in a bubble until they have a higher per capita GDP than Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong.

Government spending isn't always bad. The hoover dam worked. The interstate highway system worked. The GM bailout worked. Government inspired GDP can be as useful as private inspired GDP. In this case, I think the government spent its money wisely and delivered us a genuine recovery, I don't believe any second collapse is coming, but in any case waiting a few years will prove the issue one way or the other.

Dismissing all art as 'dogcrap' is absurd. People don't live for copper mines or wheat yields. They mine copper and farm wheat so that they can watch sports and play games in the evening. When sports, games, and movies excel, life becomes measurably and visibly better for everyone. There could be no clearer increase to quality of life than this 'dogcrap.' What would you prefer? Some other artistic work? More wheat? I don't understand.